For good or bad new Somalia is coming out
of the old. So far three states have called their shots; SNM driven state,
SSDF driven state and RRA driven state. Is Banadiri-Mudulood driven state
next, a long shot or viable? The three states that formed went through
different routes. But all had shared the basic ingredients for state
formation in Somali experience; each had it’s own recognizable militia
with strong core, recognizable geography that the core dominated solely
and History that marginalized them. They also had a major benefit; away
from Mogadishu!
Mudulood-Banadiris are the only groups so
far trying to establish state, without having an identifiable, separate
and easily recognizable militia. They are represented by splinter groups
under USC militia.
Mogadishu?
Banadir is in the middle of the centrifugal
forces of all what is important and what went wrong in Somalia; the
capital city. For things outside the control of Mudulood driven state of
Banadir, Somalia had been a one city-state. The city has emotional,
cultural and physical connection to all of the Somalis. Mogadishu is the
Somalia we know, the Somalia we love and the Somalia we hate. Mogadishu
was Somalia and vice versa Somalia was Mogadishu. Majority of Somalis have
never seen, worked, schooled or even know what to make; Hargaisa, Garowe
or Baidoa’s new statuses. But majority of Somalis had either lived,
visited, worked, schooled, roamed and someway or another have an idea what
Mogadishu should or should not be. Because of Mogadishu; mudulood driven
state will face a much bigger resistance compared to the other formed
states, most importantly from the majority within the Hawiya clan. Other
Major clans within hawiya feel and believe that statehoods are another way
of denying the fruits of victory from the last dictator. Statehoods, they
claim is a sinister form of political manipulation by the forces outside
Mogadishu, thus they reject. Majority of Dir in the North support, the
state under Hargaisa, Majority of Darods support the state under Garowe
and majority of Digil-Mirifle support the stat under Baidoa. Can the
mudulood succeed to gain the trust of the majority of Hawiye to support
Banadir state?
Majority of The driving core of the formed
states had their own identifiable militias who were the pre-organizations
that succeeded in controlling the core areas of the formed states. Banadir
driven core does not control Mogadishu, which is the core city of Banadir
statehood. Two cores are driving the Banadir state; the mudulood and
Banadirs. Banadirs never had a resistance army, while Mudulood were part
and parcel of the strongest Somali militia; USC. When SNM announced their
statehood, they had in control of the core; Hargaisa-Burco-Barbera enclave.
RRA was in control of the core; Hudur-Sakoow-Wanlawayn-Qoryoole enclave.
And SSDF had the strategically important Bosaso-Galkacyo line with a loose
alliance with Dhulbahante and Warsangali (Western Harti).
Without a complete control of Mogadishu,
can mudulood driven state announce statehood; in Somali state formation
experience they can; knowing that the formed states were not in control of
all their territories. Any secure and militarily defendable town in
Banadir can be temporarily proclaimed as state capital.
All the formed states don’t control the
boundaries of the territories they claim to represent. At the ripe time,
the fairness of judgment by the Somali society would be enough to wrestle
the difficulties of boundaries in all states. Boundaries are the most
difficulty stage that all the formed state wisely postponed to tackle,
which would have drained their status if they had proceeded securing with
force. Can the core that is driving the Banadir state postpone tackling
the Mogadishu situation? Can they put aside the sentiment carried by not
controlling their own GOOF-ranch? Can they use their resources to build
the basic infrastructure necessary to maintain and support institutions of
the expected Banadir state? And if they do, will the Somalis see as
handing over of Mogadishu to outsiders?
All and every clan outside Hawiye,
would welcome A Banadir state. But they will be asking also how they
will accommodate them; If the driven core of Banadir sate cannot
accommodate their own clan members; the Hawiye? Anti Banadir state
elements had already run a malicious propaganda; enforcing the fear of
all other Somalis, that the core driven state of Banadir will push
everyone else to the sea. Can they bring back their famous neighborism
and fairness?
- Federalism must be sold and seen to
every Somali as a solution. Banadir driven core must avoid federalism
to be seen as a new problem. It should not be seen as an exclusive
entity, even thought politically state agenda is excluding outsiders
out of their daily politics. The whole concept behind federalism is to
have a long-term stability for every Somali wherever they reside.
Banadir driven core is not only responsible for their own goals of
statehood, but all other states will fall or stand with the strategies
they choose to fellow.
- States that have formed have forgiven or
at least showed their willingness to set aside the past. They directed
all their efforts to the future. RRA is not talking anymore about the
occupation of Darod and Hawiya in Baidoa. They earned a confidence
that allowed them to focus recruiting both Hawiye and Darods to accept
and live with their agenda of statehood. Can Banadirs-Mudulood able to
forgive and forget the rhetoric against other clans?
Avoiding Hiran Syndrome!
To have a viable state, at least in Somali
experience and especially at the initial inauguration period all elements
of the society of the core has to favor and unite behind the state
creation; the elites, business, traditional Isims and important or
powerful politicians has to be united in that endeavor. Otherwise banadir
will fall under the Hiran category. Ali Mahdi, a prominent Mudulood
politician who is a member of Arta, does not support at all the idea of
Banadir State, while everyone in Arta who is from the formed state
enthusiastically supports the idea of statehood. They might be against the
leaders of their formed states, but they support the idea of having a
local state. Dr. galyr, a Harti clan member who was the first prime
minister of Arta supported the idea of Puntland state, even though arta is
against the principle of statehood. All the members of Arta of raywiin
origin showed publicly their support to the idea of statehood when RRA
proclaimed. The grass root support of the formed states is so popular,
that even members of Arta who originate from that regions cannot challenge
publicly. What is the enthusiasm and grass root support of Banadir state?
Where are their elites?
Almost all the politicians from the formed
states agree in principle, the idea of federalism and local statehood,
even when these politicians fight fiercely against each other publicly.
Shatigudud and Deroow have one thing in common, each dearly supports a
state under Baidoa, even though one is a member of Arta and the other is
anti Arta. Do the mudulud and Banadiri politicians at least share and
believe Banadir statehood? Except Xaji Muse Sudi, none is heard to support
dearly from Banadiri-Mudulood prominent leaders?
Population Make up?
The major cities in the formed states have
a population make up that is supportive to the cause of statehood.
Mogadishu’s population makeup is a result of a century migration of
other Somalis to the city. While Somalis recognize the historical position
of Mudulood and Bandiri status in Mogadishu, its population makeup of
today is extremely different than Hargaisa, Garowe or Baidoa. The bigger
clout of Mogadishu comes from its population make up! Who ever controls
Banadir will control Mogadishu and will have a major impact on Somalia’s
political process. In a stroke of a pen RRA driven state has taken the
natural resources of all Somalia. RRA is extremely lucky, no one can
immediately feel the impact of RRA driven state. The nations economy is in
ruins. But if Somalia becomes stable the economic clout and control of RRA
driven state will be felt in every corner. Future Somalia’s economic
development policy will be the economic development policy of RRA state.
If successful Banadir state will take away the political resources (Donor
money and the only sound infrastructure in Somalia), which is why Somalis
are fighting in the first place.
Identity crises?
RRA and SNM driven states didn’t had a
problem with identity; for both geographic and historical reasons. But
SSDF driven state had to overcome with identity problem. SSDF driven state
has confronted to face, whether they are Darods in first and Puntland
second? If they were Darods in first, they would have been forced to
pursue the interest of all Darods in Gedo, Juba and anywhere else. The
western Harts saved the eastern harti driven core in agonizing at the
issue of the other Darods and only succeeded to establish the state when
they let forego the Darod element in the decision of the statehood.
Indirectly the policy of domination assumed by both the SNM and USC forced
them to come together. Whatever the Darod issue was, the driving core of
Puntland state was ready to establish the state. Banadir driven core will
need to answer that before they proceed. Are they Hawiye or Banadir first?
Can they sell their ideas of statehood to all neighboring hawiye territory?
Are they willing to go ahead even if the neighboring Hawiye shows no
interest? What efforts they are putting to secure other major Hawiye clans
in forming Banadir state?
If united Hawiye can force a centralist
point in the short run. But in the long run no one can force an agenda to
the tiniest clan in Somalia. Are mudulood-Banadirs driven core better
under centralism?
From the other side of the equation, is the
other Somalis who will always find something to say about Banadir state
and deserve to be listened. Every thing they do will come under the
microscope of all the competing and crazy ill formed interests of the
rest. The constitution of Banadir state has to clearly show what are their
intentions on the status of Mogadishu? Will Mogadishu support economically
other poorer states? What would be the formula? Who would have that
decision and how that decision will be reached? Because of Mogadishu,
Bandir state would be expected to baby-sit and sometimes spoon-feed the
rest. They will be hated, loved, respected and shunned at the same time.
Conclusion:
Banadir state, as things stand today, is a
long shot! The Mudulood, the largest Somali sub-clan militia is not
vocally united to this agenda. Unless they unite in principle to statehood
agenda, it is a long shot. And unless Banadir state is formed Somali
federalism is in jeopardy. But what is important; is the yearnings of the
public; a process that has started, the wheels for that goal are making a
very load noise, while stuck in the sand dunes of Lido. More than fifty
percent of Somalia’s stocks are in Mogadishu, let the locals manage
these stocks instead of a centralist Darod, or Hawiye, or Isaq or Raywiine
etc?
Gacmo
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